In an article on medium, Karim Heiden, a business developer with over 27 years of experience in the Commodity and Forex markets, is predicting a one-trillion-dollar market cap if the Bitcoin ETF is approved.
One of the main points Heiden points to is the benefits of insurance for investors when the ETF is approved. When investors no longer have to buy real Bitcoins, with all the added risks it brings, the risk for investors is lowered. This is something that many, especially high net-worth individuals are looking for.
At first, the ETF will be rejected which will “shake out the weak hands” and push down the price even more, but this he says is a good opportunity for people that want to get in cheap. He thinks that a Bitcoin ETF is inevitable, but he believes that before it is approved, the price of Bitcoin will be manipulated and have a lot of volatility.
He also believes that an ETF approval will be followed by a long bull market similar to the price of gold when the gold ETF was approved – a topic that has previously been covered by Toshi Times. However, the similarities between gold and Bitcoin won’t matter much. When the ETF approval ignites the bull market, it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy, and more investors will jump in and raise the price even further.
Heiden then goes on to explain that since a lot of bitcoin has been lost (4 of the total 17 million) and about 20-30% of the remaining supply is locked due to various circumstances, a supply of around 10 million is plausible.
He then argues that only a push of about 250-300 billion is required to get to a trillion-dollar market cap, capital that will mainly come from high net-worth individuals. Considering that around one percent of the world owns almost half of the world’s wealth, which is around 118 trillion – only 0.5% of that would be enough to bring in almost 600 billion into Bitcoin, which doesn’t sound too farfetched.
He also believes that after the Bitcoin ETF is approved, other ETFs for altcoins such as Ethereum will be approved which would raise the total market cap for all cryptocurrencies even more. At the end of the coming bull market, he believes that Bitcoin will have a trillion-dollar market cap, and with a total supply of 17 million – a price of $58’000 per Bitcoin.
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