Ross Ulbricht is known in the cryptocurrency community as allegedly running the Silk Road marketplace. Despite being behind bars, however, Ulbricht is now becoming relevant once again. Specifically, he recently made a spectacular claim that Bitcoin will surge to $100,000 in 2020.
$100,000 Bitcoin in 2020?
Moreover, this signficant predict is supposedly not taken out of thin air. Rather, Ulbricht claims to have calculated it using the Elliot Wave Theory and applying it to Bitcoin. This came in the first six installments of his blog series “Bitcoin by Ross”.
First and foremost, seeing as Ross is behind bars in a maximum security prison, he cannot partake in the lively crypto debate on Twitter. Rather, he is relying on historical price movement and models in order to predict where their premier cryptocurrency might head next.
Interestingly, Ross has been imprisoned since the price of Bitcoin was around $100. As such, the price of Bitcoin has seen a meteoric rise ever since. Consequently, a potential rise to a $100,000 Bitcoin price suddenly does not seem as dramatic.
Moreover, Ulbricht also notes that being behind bars comes with some analytical benefits. Specifically, he says that his distance from the market means he does not have to take minor day-to-day news stories into account. This is partly the reasoning behind starting his Bitcoin by Ross blog series.
“I realized that my distance from the market is more blessing than curse. With all the day-to-day news and market info filtered out, I was only seeing the big picture, so my intuition had a chance to be heard.”
How can Elliot Waves predict the cryptocurrency markets?
Ulbricht’s analyses mainly rely on the Elliot Wave Theory framework. This model is a technical analysis technique, which primarily involves looking for recurring patterns. These are in turn generally their product of either investor sentiment, market psychology or historical trends.
“Mass psychology comes into play when other investors see the price rise and it causes them to be optimistic, so they buy in too, pushing the price still higher,” Ulbricht explains.
“Eventually — at peak optimism — everyone who is going to buy in already has, and there is no money left to drive the price higher. Then, the few sellers left in the market start to push the price back down. As they do, optimism turns to pessimism and the reverse feedback loop takes hold.”
Using the Elliot Waves Theory and applying it to Bitcoin, Ulbricht foresees a logarithmic price development in the market. Furthermore, he also predicts that the next price movement “wave” will bring Bitcoin into a range of $93,000 to $109,000.
Additionally, Ulbricht predicts that the current wave will end sometime between now and February of 2021. “Thus, we have a price and target for the end of wave I of ~$100,000 some time in or near 2020,” Ulbricht states.
Rasmus Pihl is a writer for Toshi Times by day and an avid follower of the blockchain industry by night. Rasmus holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Marketing from the Gothenburg School of Business, Economics, and Law and runs a Swedish marketing consulting firm. Moreover, when he isn’t writing for Toshi Times, traveling, working or changing the world in some other capacity, Rasmus is more than likely caught up in postgraduate studies.