Data from the CFTC has shown that negative bets on the bitcoin futures markets hit a record low last week, hinting that investors might believe there is a bull run in sight.
As recent weeks have seen bitcoin’s price plunging over several cliffs, it should come as a relief to those holding the original cryptocurrency that bullish bets on bitcoin futures hit a record low last week, indicating that marketeers may expect positive movement over the term of the next futures contracts.
The Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released data on Friday (August 24th) showing that non-commercial futures contracts for bitcoin, which are traded by hedge funds and speculative bodies, equaled a net of -1266 contracts in the week ending at August 21st. This makes it the lowest number recorded since bitcoin futures were first offered back in December 2017.
So, what does this number mean? With regard to futures, a negative total means that there is a net shorting of the bitcoin price from traders, whilst a positive number shows a net long position (i.e positive outlook) on the price.
Data from the futures market serves as a good indicator of price direction as futures contracts are generally the pursuit of professional investment firms with significant knowledge and cash behind their positions.
Whilst the data shows that the predictions might be overall still bearish, they are nevertheless down to their lowest levels since futures went on sale, indicating that larger investments in the bitcoin market may be changing direction. This marks an extremely quick transition from the record high; the greatest net short was seen just in June with a net of -1945. The fact that bitcoin has in large part maintained itself above $6,000 since trouble in the same month threatened to push it through the floor may be responsible for reducing this negative sentiment in the market.
So, are the bears really on their way out? Whilst history shows us that nobody can predict this market, it can nevertheless be observed that last week bitcoin did exhibit a glimmer of the behavior we remember from December 2017, when it jumped $500 in the space of minutes before rallying at $6,700. Whilst some have speculated that this might have been the result of market manipulation, the price has held around this point over the weekend. Upwards movement through the $6,800 barrier should follow over the next couple of days if this movement is to gain real momentum.
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Alex has been putting words on paper since he was old enough to hold a pen; when he bought his first bitcoin in January 2017, those words discovered their place within crypto as well. He holds a master’s degree in international relations from Leiden University in the Netherlands, and his special expertise lies in European cryptocurrency regulation.